What is the true narrative of Arsenal's season?

Forever destined to fall short? Killed by the misfortune of injuries and red cards? Stung by a failure to strengthen their squad?

Arsenal’s Premier League struggles this season have prompted debate as to the causes but, ahead of their Super Sunday clash with Chelsea, we ask: what is the true narrative of their campaign?

The Gunners are through to the Champions League last eight but they sit 15 points behind champions-elect Liverpool as they prepare to host Chelsea on Sunday, having finished as runners-up to Manchester City in the last two seasons.

Here, we weigh up the hows and whys behind Arsenal’s Premier League campaign and ask you to have your say on what has really gone wrong for manager Mikel Arteta and his players.

Injuries: An explanation or an excuse?

Injuries have bitten hard for Arsenal in the second half of the season, particularly in attack. In the space of the few weeks, they lost Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz, with the latter two ruled out for the remainder of the campaign, leaving the Gunners striker-less.

There have been spells out for others too. Mikel Merino’s shoulder fracture, suffered in his first training session in August, seemed to set the tone for an ill-fated campaign for the club on the injury front. It has certainly been different to last term, when their key players mostly stayed fit.

So just how badly have they suffered, relative to other Premier League sides? Data from Premier Injuries puts them fourth for days lost to injury in the division, behind only Brighton, Tottenham and Ipswich, on 869. Leaders Liverpool, by contrast, have only lost 594 days to injury.

Arsenal rank slightly lower for injuries which have caused players to miss one or more games, their total of 25 putting them sixth. But that number is still considerably higher than Liverpool’s and it is also worth considering the importance of the players who have been sidelined.

Together with Saka and Jesus, captain Martin Odegaard has played a much lower percentage of minutes than last season having suffered an ankle injury with Norway in September. Havertz’s percentage will also be significantly lower come the end of the campaign, given his absence.

Some will say Liverpool would be similarly worse off had they had to cope without their four main attackers for several months.

Others will argue that Arsenal were not at the right level even when most of their attackers were fit earlier in the campaign. Whichever way you look at it, injuries have been a theme.

Did the January window kill the title challenge?

In light of those injuries, Arsenal’s failure to strengthen their attack in the January transfer window has been pinpointed by many as a key factor in the direction their season has taken.

The club were eager to recruit, even more so after Jesus joined Saka on the sidelines early in the window, but felt the right players were not available and decided to keep their powder dry.

The decision caused outcry among supporters and frustration turned to despair when Martinelli and Havertz succumbed to their injuries only days after the closure of the window.

Should Arsenal have acted? Mathys Tel, a player they were linked with, is arguably a cautionary tale having struggled at Spurs, who he joined for an expensive loan fee from Bayern Munich.

But there is a compelling counter-argument to be found at Aston Villa, where Marcus Rashford and, in particular, Marcos Asensio, have made eye-catching impacts following their mid-season arrivals.

Arsenal already had ground to make up on Liverpool going into January. There is a question as to whether they were in the race at all. But a six-point gap soon stretched into double figures and the statistics underline the extent of their attacking drop-off after a quiet winter window which left them well short in the final third.

Red cards and refereeing: Ill-fortune or ill-discipline?

As Liverpool swiftly found their groove under Arne Slot in the early months of the season, Arsenal struggled to build any momentum, their task made harder by a spate of red cards.

The first two, shown to Declan Rice against Brighton and Leandro Trossard against Manchester City, came in unusual circumstances, with second yellows shown for kicking the ball away.

The newly introduced rules around delaying restarts were duly softened, meaning, six months on, Arsenal remain the only Premier League side to have faced maximum punishment for the supposed infraction. Arsenal were leading in both games at the time of the red cards but went on to draw them.

A further red card to William Saliba against Bournemouth, upgraded from a yellow following a VAR check, and two more to Myles Lewis-Skelly, one of which, against Wolves in January, was subsequently rescinded following an appeal, took their total to five for the season.

No other Premier League side has received more than three. Arsenal’s reds have seen them play a cumulative 210 minutes with 10 players. Apart from in the case of Lewis-Skelly against Wolves, when his ban was overturned, they have also had to deal with the subsequent suspensions.

There is no doubt the sendings-off hampered Arsenal, but were they down to ill-fortune or ill-discipline? Arsenal have had 20 red cards in the Premier League since Arteta’s appointment, the most by any side, although only two in the two seasons before this one combined.

Bottlers or battlers?

“The Gunners have fizzled out – again.” So said one pundit in the wake of Arsenal’s 1-1 draw against Manchester United. After back-to-back second-placed finishes, this side is developing an unwanted reputation, at least in the eyes of some, for falling short of the prize.

Arsenal won 16 of their final 18 Premier League games last season. Some will wonder what more they could have done. Only two Arsenal teams in history, one under Herbert Chapman in the 1930s and one under Arsene Wenger, have achieved three consecutive top-two finishes, a feat Arteta’s side are on course to replicate. But the accusations will persist until they get over the line.

Arsenal have had to compete with relentless Manchester City side in the previous two seasons. Liverpool have set similarly high standards this term. There is also the context of their injuries, red cards and recruitment missteps. But is there truth in the accusations? Always the bridesmaid, never the bride?

Have squad-building issues been exposed?

It could be argued that Arsenal’s activity, or lack of, in the summer was more costly than what happened in January. Did the club address their squad priorities by signing only Merino, Riccardo Calafiori and an on-loan Raheem Sterling? The answer has to be no.

Arsenal’s injuries have exposed a lack of attacking depth, with Reiss Nelson, Eddie Nketiah, Emile Smith Rowe and Fabio Vieira all permitted to leave without the signing of any replacements. Ethan Nwaneri and Lewis-Skelly have of course stepped up impressively but the squad is undeniably short.

That said, Arsenal came into this season having kept all of their best players and broken a club record for goals scored in the Premier League in the previous campaign. Could they have replicated those numbers if not for the injuries? Or were they set up to fail?

It certainly looks as though their incoming sporting director Andrea Berta has a lengthy to-do list this summer.

Have Arsenal hit their ceiling under Arteta?

For all Arsenal’s progress under Arteta, there is a school of thought that they have hit their ceiling under him. “I do feel, and I have been saying for a long time, that we have seen peak Arsenal under Arteta,” said Sky Sports Jamie Carragher on Monday Night Football this week.

A third campaign without a Premier League title, despite Manchester City’s drop-off, provides ammunition for that argument. His only trophy as Arsenal manager remains the 2020 FA Cup.

“Where is the evidence to think they can do it?” asked Sky Sports pundit Roy Keane when asked about their title prospects next season following Sunday’s 1-1 draw at Old Trafford. “Have they got the right mentality? Has the manager? I don’t think getting a striker in who’ll score 20 goals a season will necessarily be the difference.”

The other view is that they come back stronger.

There is of course work to do in the transfer window but Arsenal still have one of the younger teams in the Premier League, with most of their key players still approaching their peak years.

With the right additions and better luck in terms of injuries and absences, could next year be their year? Or is this season proof that they are destined to come up short again?

So… what is the true narrative of their season?

Which of the options below rings truest to you?

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