Our tipster Jones Knows provides his betting insight and analysis ahead of the Premier League weekend as he hunts down some value in Sky Bet’s markets.
Manchester City vs Everton, Saturday 12.30
Anyone for a double treble?
Manchester City to win the Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League again is now just 12/1 with Sky Bet. No team in Europe has ever gone back-to-back in this manner.
Of course, there are the 115 unresolved charges for breaking financial rules for which City deny any wrongdoing so those fancying a crack at that 12/1 must keep that in their thinking. Monday’s 3-1 win over Brentford mean it’s now 11 wins and a draw from their last 12 matches across all competitions. Erling Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne and John Stones aren’t even back at full tilt yet. Turn the lights off guys, it could be over.
My eyes are drawn to Rodri’s attacking output for what feels like an inevitable procession of a home win.
The bulldozing midfielder has a taste for shots up against the lower-placed teams who usually play in a low block. In six games this season against the bottom six, he has fired 19 shots, eight on target and scored three times as he’s become incredibly intelligent at finding space, unmarked, in and around the box when City are probing.
Using the Bet Builder function with Sky Bet you can back Rodri to score and hit his usual shot averages of three shots to result in a lively 8/1 chance to attack.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0
Fulham vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm
In what looks a decidedly difficult game to find a betting angle in the outright prices, backing Fulham centre-back Tosin Adarabioyo to score first at 33/1 with Sky Bet may provide the answer. Fulham are a corner winning machine at home as their tactic of getting the ball wide and deep into crossing situations does lead to a high probability of corners being won.
They are winning on average eight corners per 90 in their home matches across all competitions this season with 41 being won in their last four matches at Craven Cottage.
This is allowing Tosin, who scored in the 5-0 win over West Ham, plenty of opportunities to venture forward and he’s had 10 shots in his last seven starts. In his last two Premier League games, both James Trafford and Jordan Pickford have had to make fine one-handed stops to keep out one of his headers. He’s knocking on that door.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Liverpool vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Darwin Nunez is becoming a popular selection for punters in various prop markets due to his all-action style and uncanny ability to be at the forefront of a performance for Liverpool.
Many will head to the shots market to try and back a winner as no Premier League player is averaging more shots (4.94) or shots on target (2.16) per 90 than the striker. However, all those prices are now wholly unbackable with five or more shots trading at odds-on (8/11 with Sky Bet). If you dig a little deeper though there is a bit of value to be had in Nunez’s offsides lines for this match.
No Premier League player is averaging more offsides per 90 this season (1.27) as his eagerness to break offside traps has seen him flagged offside 22 times in his last 15 starts. That included being caught by Burnley’s trap twice in the reverse fixture in December. Vincent Kompany’s team do like to play a high line – only five teams have caught more players offside this season than the Clarets (47).
All this adds up to Nunez’s offside probabilities looking very strong at the 10/11 with Sky Bet offered for one or more offsides and the 4/1 for two or more.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Darwin Nunez to be caught offside (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Luton vs Sheffield United, Saturday 3pm
Forget Tottenham. Forget Brighton. Forget Liverpool. If you’re after the hottest ticket in town then Luton should be your destination.
Rob Edwards’ side are playing with a bravery and intensity that is taking the Premier League by storm and catching opponents cold. Everyone seems to know their role in their unique man-for-man pressing setup and their attackers are playing with great confidence in front of goal. Over their last five Premier League games there have been 24 goals scored, almost five goals per game.
Draws really are no good for Sheffield United in their predicament, so I’m fully expecting a goal-heavy encounter.
There is a clear trend developing that these types of games down at the bottom are producing more attacking intent than what the expected models are spitting out for the bookmaker lines. Of the 25 games involving both Sheffield United, Luton, Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, Everton and Brentford this season, the overall goal average has been 3.04 per game – above what has been expected by the market. And 40 per cent of those 25 games have seen four or more goals scored.
I’ll be taking two angles of attack on the goals market, backing over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring at 11/10 with Sky Bet and the 11/2 for over 4.5 goals in the match.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score (11/10 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) & Over 4.5 goals (11/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Tottenham vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Proper shootout this one. You attack. We attack.
Both teams will offer up big opportunities so it will be down to which of the two forward lines will be clinical on the day. The edge is with Tottenham in that regard with the returning Heung-Min Son potentially back and Richarlison scoring nine in his last eight Premier League appearances. Spurs to win and both teams to score at 7/4 with Sky Bet looks an angle to consider.
There will be ample of opportunities across the prop markets to find winners with such an open match in prospect that will produce a high volume of shots, cards, fouls and just general mayhem.
I’ll be hoping Roberto De Zerbi continues to pick Tariq Lamptey in an advanced attacking role down the left wing as his shot prices are value soaked for a match of this nature. A player picked in that position in a De Zerbi side is going to find shooting opportunities dropping his way – as we saw when Solly March was reinvented as a wide forward. Lamptey has the ability and potential to go the same way. He looks a cracking bet if starting in that same role for two or more shots at 3/1 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-2
Wolves vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Hands up, who saw the Neal Maupay goal machine storyline coming this season? It’s now five goals on the spin for the former Everton flop.
What has been the catalyst for this transformation from misfit to magician? Home sweet home at Brentford, perhaps? A change in his nutrition? New boots?
It’s got to be his decision to grab the tag of being the biggest wind-up merchant in the Premier League. He looks comfortable playing the pantomime villain. He feeds off the boos. He gets under people’s skin.
James Maddison nibbled after Maupay nicked his dart-throwing celebration – although the Spurs man did have the last laugh – while Kyle Walker clashed with the Brentford man on Monday after an exchange of views were shared.
How do we profit, then? Well, we head to the cards market where Maupay is 9/4 with Sky Bet to be carded at Molineux – a ground he received his only career red card in 2021. Fancy a repeat while he treads this disciplinary tightrope? It’s 33/1 for him to see red.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Such was the beating Nottingham Forest dished out to Newcastle in December – added to the Toon’s defensive vulnerability, especially to counter-attack – fading the away win at 21/20 with Sky Bet is an easy case to make.
An expected goals total of 3.46 at St James’ Park showcases the quality of chances Forest created in that 3-1 win as their defending in numbers and quick transitions in attack are the perfect tactics to stifle and punish Eddie Howe’s side.
The 11/8 on Forest in the draw no bet market certainly has potential.
Along with hat-trick hero Chris Wood, Morgan Gibbs-White ran amok playing in his preferred free role in the reverse fixture, racking up an expected goals tally of 0.33 from his three shots at goal.
I’m adamant we’re dealing with a Champions League level player in time and his goalscorer prices remain hard to ignore with 6/1 anytime available with Sky Bet. He has scored twice since Nuno Espirito Santo took the reins and we have the added bonus of him being the likely penalty taker, which are being awarded at a rate of 0.29 per game this season meaning that 6/1 is a slice of value just on those grounds.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Morgan Gibbs-White to score (6/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
West Ham vs Arsenal, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This is a fiddly fixture for Arsenal, fraught with danger.
The 8/15 with Sky Bet for the away win is easily passed up. Not only have West Ham twice played the frustration game on Arsenal this season beating them 2-0 at the Emirates and 3-1 in the Carabao Cup, David Moyes is developing a strong home record against the traditional big-six teams. West Ham have only lost two of their last eight home games against such opposition in the Premier League, including holding the Gunners to 2-2 last April. They can avoid another defeat.
There are some fancy prices available in the West Ham player shots market with the bookmaker algorithms expecting Arsenal to minimise the Hammers threat. However, the Gunners have shipped 10 shots per game in their away matches this season in all competitions as they do tend to sit a little deeper and allow opposition more of the possession than in their home games. West Ham have also averaged 11.5 shots per 90 in those recent home fixtures against the big six.
It all points to Emerson Palmieri’s lines looking very backable. He’s been tasked with providing the width down the left flank since Lucas Paqueta’s injury. He’s had 10 shots in his last eight starts meaning his odds of Evens with Sky Bet for one or more shots and the 5/1 for two or more are betting angles to seriously consider.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Aston Villa vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Teams have found a way to stop Aston Villa. Home defeats to both Newcastle and Chelsea had been coming based on some sticky overall performances of late, notably in the 3-2 win over Burnley and draw with Everton. There is a common denominator with Villa’s drop in levels in that Pau Torres has been missing.
They’ve struggled without his confidence with the ball and leadership without it. Opposition have cut off the supply lines to Douglas Luiz and Boubacar Kamara by pinning them in and allowing Diego Carlos and Clement Lenglet to pass out.
Villa have subsequently made hard work of breaking the lines and moving the ball quickly. When then losing possession, teams have manage to expose Villa down the channels in behind their full-backs. Also, this lack of confidence in their crucial offside trap does make it easier for opposition players to make their runs.
Torres is key to all of this and his unavailability from the start makes the price for an away win look rather attractive at 21/10 with Sky Bet, especially as in Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho they posses the perfect type of direct wingers to expose Villa’s vulnerability down the flanks. The pair ran riot in the 3-2 comeback win at Old Trafford with Garnacho scoring twice. They can lead United to their fourth straight away win in all competitions. Momentum is building.
The 9/1 with Sky Bet on them making top-four does look a play to consider while you can get it.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Trying to win football matches is hard enough when Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze are unavailable but when you throw Marc Guehi into the injury mix too, Palace are a seriously weakened outfit.
Breaking up the Guehi-Joachim Anderson partnership at the back is likely to make the whole Hodgson masterplan of containment crumble to bits. In 83 Premier League matches with Guehi and Anderson starting, Palace have a very healthy 31.3 per cent win rate. Take one of them out and that win rate drops to 12.5 per cent.
In those 16 games, Palace concede an average of 1.8 goals per 90 and have lost 10 of those fixtures.
Chelsea aren’t exactly reliable but with confidence and spirit soaring after their impressive midweek 3-1 win at Villa, they can make it 12 Premier League wins in a row over Crystal Palace – that would equal the record for successive wins for one team against another in Premier League history.
Rather than back Chelsea at precarious prices though, I’d rather invest in some Enzo Fernandez angles on what should be an evening of Chelsea racking up the shots count trying to pick their way through the Hodgson block. The Argentine should be full of himself, in a good way, following his sumptuous goal at Villa Park.
His raw average of 1.99 shots per 90 in the Premier League is enough on its own to make the 10/11 with Sky Bet on him having two or more shots an appealing wager but when you throw in the likely one-sided game-state along with his increased confidence levels you’ve got yourself a blinding spot of value to attack.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES’ KNOWS BEST BET: Enzo Fernandez to have two or more shots (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
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