All eyes are on the Super Bowl this week—which means, invariably, copious amounts of degen speculation is also along for the ride.
On crypto-backed prediction gambling site Polymarket, users have already staked hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of crypto on bets concerning America’s biggest sporting event, on matters ranging from the routine to the ridiculous.
Many of the bets center on the celebrity couple that’s dominated NFL coverage this season: Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce—who makes his fourth Super Bowl appearance on Sunday—and pop star Taylor Swift.
Take for instance, the “Taylor Swift Parlay,” which assesses the likelihood of Kelce scoring a touchdown on Sunday, the Chiefs defeating the San Francisco 49ers to win the Super Bowl shortly thereafter, and Kelce kissing Swift within the stadium grounds at the game’s conclusion, as confirmed by picture or video.
Degens have already thrown over $35,000 at the Uncut Gems–reminiscent gamble, which market forces have determined is 28% likely to pay off.
For those on the fence: a kiss on the cheek counts.
Another bet, which has attracted just shy of $30,000 worth of capital, weighs the odds that Kelce proposes to Swift at the Super Bowl, on the grounds of Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Degens appear skeptical that the power couple will take the leap after only six months of dating, with “yes” odds hovering around 6%—but what do they know about love?
For the truly bold, another bet questions whether Swift will attend the Super Bowl at all. Odds are exceedingly low (3.8%) that the singer will play hooky after attending every one of Kelce’s games since the two began dating last fall. Some uncertainty was sparked by Swift’s touring schedule, which has her performing in Tokyo on Saturday night—but Japanese diplomats issued a statement this week promising the logistics are sound.
🇯🇵 Statement from the Embassy of Japan on Taylor Swift’s Reported Travel from Japan to the United States ✈️🏈 Are you ready for it? pic.twitter.com/wFKadehTJk
— Japan Embassy DC🌸 (@JapanEmbDC) February 2, 2024
Cynics have much to gain on betting on logistical failure, however: a $1,000 bet on Swift’s absence would pay out $19,678 if the star failed to show up. Over $8,000 has been spent on the question so far.
Even more lucrative odds oppose the numerous degens who have waged a substantial sum on whether Swift will explicitly endorse President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign at the Super Bowl. The question, which has recently attracted significant scrutiny, has only a 2% chance of coming true, according to $28,000 worth of bets on the matter. But a $1,000 bet on the endorsement would pay out a whopping $41,642 if the event came to pass.
Easily the biggest Polymarket wager regarding the Super Bowl, though, centers on a far more standard question: who will win? Degens have thrown more than $755,000 at the bet, which is trending close to even money. Currently, the 49ers are favored over the star-studded Chiefs, with 55% odds of victory.
Edited by Andrew Hayward