NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — Hurricane Rafael continues to intensify, now boasting a well-defined eye as it approaches Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico.
Radar data from the Cayman Islands, along with observations from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft, confirm that Rafael has developed a double eyewall structure — a feature typical of strengthening hurricanes.
Hurricane Hunters also found that maximum sustained wind speeds have increased to about 115 miles per hour, prompting the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Rafael to a Category 3 storm.
As Rafael approaches western Cuba, it remains in a favorable environment for continued intensification. Warm ocean waters and light wind shear are promoting the hurricane’s development. Although Rafael may experience a temporary slowdown in intensification due to an eyewall replacement cycle, the storm is expected to remain a major hurricane before making landfall in western Cuba later today.
Some weakening is forecast as Rafael moves over Cuba, but it should retain hurricane strength as it tracks over the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico. Increased wind shear and dry air could weaken Rafael in the Gulf, though a more southerly path could expose it to less hostile conditions, adding uncertainty to the forecast intensity.
Rafael is currently moving northwest at roughly 13 mph, guided by a high pressure system over the southwestern Atlantic. This system is expected to shift westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days, causing Rafael to turn more westward as it enters the southern Gulf.
Forecast models are aligned on Rafael’s path over the next two to three days, but uncertainty grows significantly beyond that timeframe.
The area of high pressure is expected to remain north of Rafael, leading to a southward shift in the National Hurricane Center’s projected track after three days. The NHC also noted in their forecast discussion that further adjustments to the track may be needed.
As Rafael approaches land, officials have issued a hurricane warning for western Cuba and the Isle of Youth, where residents are advised to prepare for life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves.
Tropical-storm-force winds are also expected to affect the Lower and Middle Florida Keys later today and tonight, with gusts posing a potential threat.
Although it remains too early to determine Rafael’s impacts on the western Gulf Coast, residents along the coast are encouraged by federal forecasters to stay updated on the storm’s forecast.
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